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Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T19:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32612/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is an M5.0 flare peaking at 2024-08-07T18:54Z from AR 3777. The start of the CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-07T17:23Z to 23:09Z. Dimming, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption appears to be directed towards the southeast. A possible faint, separate halo component may also be seen in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-11T11:38Z (-11.22h, +10.84h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/08/07 19:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 08:00Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 11:00Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction
POS Difference: 3:00
POS Midpoint: 09:30Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:20

Numeric View/Impact Type: 
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.17
Travel Time: ~6.17 * 14:20 = 88:28

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-11T11:38Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/08 14:30Z

Lead Time: 44.60 hour(s)
Difference: -23.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-08T15:19Z

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